Decision Making Biases

Your Choices Explanation (a) driving a car on a 400-mile trip 1. Availability Heuristic - Many people respond that flying in a commercial airliner is far riskier than driving a car. The media's tendency to sensationalize airplane crashes contributes to this perception.  In actuality, the safety record for flying is far better than that for driving. Thus, this example demonstrates that a particularly vivid event will systematically influence the probability assigned to that type of event by an individual in the future. This bias is an example of the availability heuristic; it occurs because vivid events are more easily remembered and consequently more available when making judgements.   (b) that have 'r' as the third letter 2. Availability Heuristic - If you responded "start with an r," you have joined the majority.  Unfortunately this is the incorrect answer.   People typically solve this problem by first recalling words that begin with r and words that have an r as the third letter.   The relative difficulty of generating words in each of these two categories is then assessed.   If we think of our minds as being organized like a dictionary, it is easier to find lots of words that start with an r -- they are more readily available. The dictionary, and our minds, are less efficient at finding words that follow a rule that is inconsistent with the organizing structure - like words that have an r as the third letter.   (b) with a management consulting firm 3. Representativeness Heuristic - Most people will choose "a" because they approach the problem by analyzing the degree to which Mark is representative of their image of individuals who take jobs in each of the two areas. However, when you reconsider the problem in light of the fact that a much larger number of MBAs take jobs in management consulting -relevant information that should enter into any reasonable prediction of Mark's career path - then it is only reasonable to pick "b."   (b) incorrect 4. Representativeness Heuristic - Many people pick "a" despite the fact that the performance of the first four sales directors will not directly affect the performance of the fifth. Most individuals frequently rely upon their intuition and the representativeness heuristic and incorrectly conclude that a poor performance is unlikely because the probability of getting five "lemons" in a row is extremely low. Unfortunately, this logic ignores the fact that we have already witnessed four "lemons" (an unlikely occurrence) and the performance of the fifth sales director is independent of that of the first four.   $ 75000 5. Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic - Was your answer affected by the chemist's response? Although most people will deny that it did, individuals are generally affected by the fairly irrelevant information given by the chemist. Reconsider how you would have would have responded if the chemist's estimate was $85,000.  Studies have found that people develop estimates by starting from an initial anchor, based on whatever information is provided, and adjusting from there to yield a final answer.

	Interpretation
	Each of the preceding questions examines your tendency to use a different judgment heuristic. Heuristics are "simplifying strategies, or rules of thumb" used by people to assist in making decisions. Source: Bazerman, Max. H. Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, (New York: Wiley, 1994) Used by permission.

Turbulence Tolerance Test Your TTT Score is 1.79 Scoring The 24 item scores were summed and divided by 24. Interpretation This instrument gives an impression of your tolerance for managing in turbulent times - something likely to characterize the world of work well into the next century.  In general, the higher your TTT score, the more comfortable you seem to be with turbulence and change - a positive sign.  For comparison purposes, the average scores for some 500 MBA students and young managers was 1.5 - 1.6.  The test's author suggests the TTT scores may be interpreted much like a grade point average in which 4.0 is a perfect "A".  On this basis, a 1.5 is below a "C"!  How did you do?

Emotional Intelligence Scoring Your Scores: Self-Awareness 54 Managing Emotions 40 Self-Motivation 31 Relating Well 103 Emotional Mentoring 70 Interpretation This instrument was developed by Weisinger, 1998. The instrument is designed to understand your abilities in terms emotional intelligence and to assist in the development of these skills.  Individual responses score as follows: Self-Awareness  1, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 Managing Emotions  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 13, 27 Self-Motivation  7, 22, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28 Relating Well  8, 10, 16, 19, 20, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 42, 43, 44, 45 Emotional Mentoring  8, 10, 16, 18, 34, 35, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 44, 45 Organize your responses by major catergory and note which item scores received a response of 4 or lower and which received a score of 5 or higher.  Study the patterns and decide which competencies you want to improve.  Job Design Preference Scoring Your score: 4.75 Interpretation If you score above 4.0 your desire for growth need satisfaction through work tends to be high and you are likely to prefer an enriched job. If you score below 4.0 your desire for growth need satisfaction through work tends to be low and you are likely to not be satisfied or motivated with an enriched job.   Source: Reprinted with permission from J. R. Hackman and G. R. Oldham, The Job Diagnostic Survey: An Instrument for the Diagnosis of Jobs and the Evaluation of Job Redesign Projects, Technical Report 4 (New Haven, CT: Yale University, Department of Administrative Sciences, 1974)

	Time Management Profile  The Scoring Your Score is 6 Your total was calculated based on the number of "Yes" answers to items 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, and 12. If you answered "Yes" to those you received one point for each. If you answered "No" to items 1, 4, 6, 9, 10, and 11 then you received a point for each. The "Yes" points and the "No" points were added together. The Interpretation The higher the total score, the closer your behavior matches recommended time management guidelines. Reread those items where your responses did not match the desired one. Why don't they match? Do you have reasons why your behavior in this instance should be different from the recommended guidelines? Think about what you can do (and how easily it can be done) to adjust your behavior to be more consistent with these guidelines. For further reading, see Alan Lakein, How to Control Your Time and Your Life (New Yourk: David McKay, no date), and William Oncken, Managing Management Time (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1984).
Source:	Suggested by a discussion in Robert E. Quinn, Sue R. Faerman, Michael P. Thompson, and Michael R. McGrath, Becoming a Master Manager: A Contemporary Framework (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1990), pp. 75-76
Entrepreneurship Orientation Your Score: 77 The Scoring You were given 10 points for each of the following answers: 1a, 2a, 3c, 4a, 5a, 6a, 7c, 8a, 9c, 10c, 11b, and 12c. You were given 8 points for each of the following answers: 3b, 8b, and 9b. You were given 6 points for 2b and 5b. You were given 5 points for 1b. You were given 4 points for 5c. Two points were given for: 2c, 3a, 4b, 6c, 9d, 10b, 11a, and 12b. Any other answered were given 0 points. The Interpretation This assessment offer an impression of your entrepreneurship profile, or EP. It compares your characteristics with those of typical entrepreneurs. Your instructor can provide further information on each question, as well as some additional insight into the background of entrepreneurs. You may locate your EP score on the following grid. 100 + = Entrepreneur extraordinaire 80-99 = Entrepreneur 60-79 = Potential entrepreneur 0-59 = Entrepreneur in the rough     Source: Instrument adapted from Norman M. Scarborough and Thomas W. Zimmerer, Effective Small Business Managment, 3rd ed. (Columbus: Merrill, 1991), pp. 26-27. Used by permission.

Stress Self-Test Your Score: 96 The Scoring Your score was figured by totalling the numbers for all items and then multiplying that number by three to give you a total score. The Interpretation This scale is designed to measure your personality tendency toward Type A or Type B behaviors. Scores of 100 and above are considered Type A; scores under 100 are considered Type B. Type A personality is associated with high stress. Persons who are Type A tend to bring stress on themselves even in situations where others are relatively stress-free. This is an important characteristic to be able to identify in yourself and others.
Source:	Adapted from R. W. Bortner, "A Short Rating Scale as a Potential Measure of Type A Behavior," Journal of Chronic Diseases, vol. 22 (1966), pp. 87-91. Used by Permission
Team Leader Skills Scoring This survey divides its outcomes into seven distinct areas: CATEGORY Building the Team Developing People Problem Solving/Decision Making Stakeholder Relations Team Performance Team Process Providing Personal Leadership * ITEMS 1, 9 2, 10 3, 11 4, 12 5, 13 6, 14 7, 8, 15 SCORE 5 7 5 8 9 8 7.9 * The Personal Leadership Score is normalized in order to compare to the others. Interpretation: The higher the score, the more importance you place on the particular outcome. It is doubtful that any one team leader is capable of exhibiting all the skills listed above. More and more, corporations are finding that they think more of "top management teams", rather than the vision of the single, heroic leader figure. As long as the "team" reflects most of these skills across the members, than there is a better chance of a healthy, high performance team. Your Score for A 21st Century Manager Your total points: 3 The Scoring One point for each Strong answer, and 1/2 point for each Good answer. No points are awarded for Weak answers or Unsure answers. The Interpretation This assessment offers a self-described profile of your management foundations (PMF). Are you a perfect 10, or is your PMF score something less than that? There shouldn't be too many 10s around. Ask someone who knows you to assess you on this instrument. You may be surprised at the differences between your PMF score as self-described and your PMF score as described by someone else. Most of us, realistically speaking, must work hard to grow and develop continually in these and related management foundations. This is a good starting point as you consider where and how to further pursue the development of your managerial skills and competencies. The items on the list are recommended by the American Assembly of Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB) as skills and personal characteristics that should be nurtured in college and university students of business administration. Their success--and yours--as 21st-century managers may well rest on (1) an initial awareness of the importance of these basic management foundations and (2) a willingness to strive continually to strengthen them throughout the work career.     Source: See Outcome Measurement Project, Phase I and Phase II Reports (St. Louis: American Assembly of Collegiate Schools of Business, 1986 & 1987). Facts and Inferences Your Score:                           Correct Answers 1.   False 2.   True 3.   True 4.   True 5.   True 6.   True 7.   True 8.   False 9.   False 10. True Either True or False True True Either True or False Either True or False True Either True or False Either True or False False Either True or False The Interpretation 1. We are not sure that the "tall, dark and broad figure" is a thief; it could be a secretary demanding the exam to make copies, or a student who is taking the test early. For that matter, we don't even know for sure that the figure is a person. Could it be the professor's shadow, and he or she is only jokingly demanding the exam?  The text does not provide enough information for us to know who or what the figure is with certainty. 2. The text specifically says the professor turned off the lights. 3. The text specifically says that a tall figure demanded the exam. 4. The text never says that the exam was picked up -- only that everything in the drawer was picked up. The exam may not have been in the drawer. 5. Again, the text never says the exam was picked up, let alone by the professor. 6. The text clearly says that just after the professor turned of the lights in the office, a tall, dark and broad figure appeared. 7. The text does not say that the professor is a man! 8. We do not know who ran down the hall, only that it was an individual. 9. The text specifically says that the drawer was opened by the professor. 10. We don't know how many people are referred to, for a number of reasons. First, as indicated we don't know for sure that the "figure" is a person.  Second, a "professor," "figure," "individual," and "dean" are mentioned. However, we don't know if the professor and individual are the same or different persons. Third and similarly, we don't know if the "figure" or individual are the same or different persons.  Fourth, it is possible that the dean is either the individual or the "figure." Good planning depends on good decision making by the people doing the planning. Being able to distinguish "facts" and understand one's "inferences" are important steps toward improving the planning process. Involving others to help do the same can frequently assist in this process. Global Readiness Your Global Mindset score is  4 Your Global Knowledge score is  4.33 Your Global Work Skills score is  3.33   Scoring The goal is to score as close to a perfect "5" as possible on each of the three dimensions of global readiness.  Items 1, 2, 3, and 4 are totaled and then divided by 4 to determine your "Global Mindset" score.  Items 5, 6, and 7 are totaled and then divided by 3 to determine your "Global Knowledge" score.  And items 8, 9, and 10 are totaled and then divided by 3 to determine your "Global Work SKills" score. Interpretation To be successful in the 21-st century work environment, you must be comfortable with the global economy and the cultural diversity that it holds.  This requires a global mindset that is receptive to and respectful of cultural differences, global knowledge that includes the continuing quest to know and learn more about other nations and cultures, and global work skills that allow you to work effectively across cultures. Your Intuitive Ability Your Intuitive Score is 7 The Scoring The number of "a" responses for questions 1, 3, 5, 6 and 11 are totaled to give you an A score. The total number of "b" responses from questions 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 12 are collected to provide a B score. Your "a" and "b" scores are then added to give you your intuitive score. The highest intuitive score is 12; the lowest is 0. The Interpretation In his book Intuition in Organizations (Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1989), pp. 10-11, Weston H. Agor states: "Traditional analytical techniques...are not as usefull as they once were for guiding major decisions...If you hope to be better prepared for tomorrow, then it only seems logical to pay some attention to the use and development of intuitive skills for decision making." Agor developed the prior survey to help people assess their tendencies to use intuition in decision making. Your score offers a general impression of your strength in this area. It might need to further develop your skill and comfort with more intuitive decision approaches. Cultural Attitudes Inventory Your Scores:   Masculinity-Femininity   1.44 Individualism-Collectivism 3 Uncertainty Avoidance 3.6 Power Distance 1.17 The Scoring Your responses to items 1-9 were totalled and divided by 9, giving you the MF score. Your responses to items 10-14 were totalled and divided by 5 resulting in an IC score. Responses to items 15-19 were summed and divided by 5 giving you a UA score. Finally, items 20-25 were totalled and divided by 6 with a PD score.  Read Scores as Follows: MAS/FEM: 1= Low masculinity (high in feminism) 5= High masculinity (low  in feminism)   IDV/COL: 1= High in individualism (low in collectivism) 5= Low individualism (high in collectivism)     UA: 1= low in uncertainty avoidance 5= High in uncertainty avoidance   PD: 1= low in power distance 5=High in power distance NOTE! The IC score is in a reverse direction than the other scales, meaning low numbers in IC are associated with high Individuality. Higher scores on the IC score are associated with high Collectivism.    The Interpretation Each of these scores corresponds to one of Hofstede's dimension of national culture: MF = masculinity-femininity; IC = individualism-collectivism; UA = uncertainty avoidance; PD = power distance. His research shows that various "national" cultures of the world score differently on these dimensions. Consider how closely your scores may represent your national culture. What are the implications of your score for your work as a manager? Compare yourself to these scores from a sample of United States and Mexican students:     U.S. Mexican Your Scores MF 2.78 2.75 1.44 IC 2.19 3.33 3 UA 3.41 4.15 3.6 PD 1.86 2.22 1.17 Source: Items are a part of a larger instrument developed by Peter W. Dorfman and Jon P. Howell, New Mexico State University. Used by permission. The comparative data are from Stephen P. Robbins, Management, 3rd ed. (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1990), p. 670. Diversity Awareness Your Scores:   The Scoring There are no correct answers for the Diversity Awareness Checklist. The Interpretation In the diversity checklist, the key issue is the extent to which you are "sensitive" to diversity issues in the workplace or university. Are you comfortable with your responses? How do you think others in your class responded? Why not share your responses with others and examine different viewpoints on this important issue? Your Organizational Culture Preference The Scoring: Your score indicates you favor the    baseball team . These labels identify the four different cultures: 1 = "baseball team" A culture that values talent, entrepreneurial activity, and performance over commitment; one that offers large financial rewards and individual recognition. 2 = "the club" A culture that stresses loyalty, working for the good of the group, and getting to know the right people; one that believes in "generalists" and "step-by-step career progress. 3 = "the fortress" A culture that offers little job security; one that operates with a survival mentality, stresses that every individual can make a difference, and focuses attention on "turn-around" opportunities. 4 = "the academy" A culture that values long-term relationships; one that emphasizes systematic career development, regular training, and advancement based on gaining functional expertise. The Interpretation To some extent, your future career success may depend on working for an organization in which there is a good fit between you and the prevailing corporate culture. This assessment can help you learn how to recognize various cultures, evaluate how well they can serve your needs, and recongize how they may change with time. A risk taker, for example, may be out of place in a "club" but fit right in with a "baseball team." Someone who wants to seek opportunities wherever they may occur may be out of place in an academy" but fit right in with a "fortress."   Source: Developed from Carol Humowitz, "Which Corporate Culture Fits You? The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 1989, pp. B1. Performance Appraisal Assumptions Your Choices b a a a b a a a Interpretation   There is no formal scoring for this assessment, but there may be a pattern to your responses. In general, the "a" responses represent a more traditional approach to performance appraisal that emphasizes its evaluation function. This role largely puts the supervisor in the role of documenting a subordinate's performance for control and administrative purposes. The "b" responses represent a more progressive approach that includes a strong emphasis on the counseling or development role. Here, the superviosr is concerned with helping the subordinate do better and with learning from the subordinate what he or she needs to be able to do better. There is more of an element of reciprocity in this role. It is quite consistent with new directions and values emerging in today's organizations. Source: Bazerman, Max. H. Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, (New York: Wiley, 1994) Used by permission. Assertiveness Questionnaire Your scores are:    Agggressive = 19 Passive = 15 Assertive = 18 Scoring Scores were totaled as follows: Items 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, and 17 provided your Aggressive score. Items 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, and 16 provided your Passive score. Items 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, and 18 provided your Assertive score. Interpretation Your maximum score in any single area is 24. The minimum score is 6.   Time Orientation Your scores are:   Monochronic 23 Polychronic 33 Scoring Cultural differences in orientations toward time can be broken into two ends of a continuum: Monochronic time - approaches time in a linear fashion with things dealt with one at a time in an orderly fashion.  This approach pervades North America and northern European cultures.  Time is viewed as a precious commodity, not to be wasted, and values punctuality and promptness.  Items 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17.  Polychronic time - involves doing a number of things at once, intertwining them together in a dynamic process that considers changing circumstances.  Commitments are viewed as objectives, but capable of adjustment when necessary.  Items 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 Interpretation By comparing your scores above, you can ascertain with which time orientation you appear to have a greater identification.  You may want to compare your scores to those of your fellow students from different cultures.